The predictAL risk algorithm predicts the onset of at-risk alcohol consumption in the next year. The validation study was conducted in six Spanish provinces in six different communities and included 3,954 primary care consultants who were abstainers or low-risk drinkers who were followed up for one year.

Forty-one different risk factors related to at-risk alcohol consumption were studied. For the predictAL risk algorithm, eight of these risk factors were selected, which together predict the conversion in at-risk or alcohol-dependent drinkers with good validity - AUROC: 0.89 - as well as good calibration³.